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Future Trends in Gaming
Presenter: David
Walsh, Ph.D., President, National
Institute on Media and the Family
View
presentation.
A summary of future trends in gaming established the context for
the Summit discussions. The predominant factor in setting the
context is the hyperbolic speed of change in nearly every aspect
of video game operations. The exceedingly fast pace of new technology
developments poses the most significant challenge in the Summit's
10-year action plan.
South Korea, a global leader in information technology, offers
a prototype of future trends. The country is the world's leader
in developing universal wireless broadband access and media convergence.
The results are both exciting and alarming. For example, the South
Korean government has already established 40 government-sponsored
clinics for Internet and video-game addiction.
Five trends were highlighted for review and discussion at the
Summit: convergence of technology, changing game developer-player
relationships, technology attractiveness, opportunities for commercial
expansion and biomedical research on video game effects.
Convergence of technology
Video gaming is transitioning from static to dynamic content on
multiple fronts:
- The "YouTube" effect in video gaming will transition
video game players into game producers, capable of using technology
to develop their own noncommercial games.
- The gaming format will transition from game station-based
to Internet-based, and from one- or two-player games, into multiplayer
Internet games, with online subscriber formats. One existing model
of this is World of War Craft, which has already attracted over
7 million subscribers.
- Greater technological sophistication, such as games that
use artificial intelligence for real-time changes in games, or
operation of games through voice recognition.
Internet-based gaming may decrease the ability of adults to monitor
or intervene with their children's video gaming.
Changing game developer-player relationships
As games move to Internet-based and increased interactivity, game
developers will have more frequent contact with players. Effects
of the greater dependence in the developer-player relationships
includes:
- Increasing options for video game developers to build loyalty
with players, particularly by constant adaptation of games for
users
- New financial incentives for game developers to build regular
revenue streams through subscriber services and frequent game
updates, for example, by developing new episodes of video games
each month for consumers to purchase
The concern in these developer-player relationships is the degree
to which players are being unfairly manipulated in such decisions
as spending more money or more time on video gaming, or being enticed
to use video games that at the onset are age-inappropriate or evolve
into age-inappropriate games.
Technological attractiveness
As the technology grows more sophisticated, video game users,
particularly youth, may be at increasing risk of losing the ability
to limit their game-playing, with resulting problems:
- Increasing individual social and psychological problems
with overuse of video games, such as youth who do not develop
personal relationships, whose academics decline as a result of
video game-playing, whose psychological health is affected by
addiction-like game-playing, and whose physical health suffers
because of lack of sleep and extreme amounts of game-playing.
- Increasing social negatives as the population of extreme
game-players grows, and problems among individuals become problems
among sub-populations. One example would be declining college
enrollment among young males.
Opportunities for commercial expansion
The new game products and online services will attract investments
from commercial marketers, such as:
- Expanded roles for advertisers, through product placements
and adver-games, such as video games developed exclusively by
advertisers to market a product or service
- Greater genre diversity, as advertisers seek out video
games to reach a broader audience. One expansion area would be
more female-oriented video games, such as SIMS, which attract
female youth. The genre diversity holds potential to have positive
or negative effects on individuals or cultures.
As advertising in video games takes on new forms, the concern
is the degree consumers of video games, particularly youth, have
the ability to be discerning consumers who recognize advertisements
as attempts to manipulate their consumer decision-making.
Trends in biomedical research on video game
effects
As video gaming grows in popularity and becomes a more common
form of entertainment for increasingly larger and more diverse
populations, research on the effects of video gaming grows more
important. Biomedical research may offer compelling findings on
effects. For example, neurological studies are examining brains
for signs of video-gaming effects.
Research Citations
South
Korea international conference on gaming
Atlantic
Monthly article on video gaming trends
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